Betting on a barnburner in Philly Sunday: Hawks @ 76ers o220.5
Before the tip-off of the Eastern Conference second round opener featuring the Hawks at the 76ers Sunday, these teams will have faced off three times this season already. The first two meetings resulted in disappointing aggregate scoring (i.e. paydays for UNDER-backers). Not surprisingly against this backdrop, of approaching 28,000 bet tickets tracked by SportsInsights, around 75% of dollars wagered on the O/U are with the UNDER.
The Sixers allowed the Washington Wizards an average of 110.5 points per 100 possessions during the five games of this first round matchup. This number is better than four points below the League's post-season average this year. Also worth mentioning, Philly's defense was particularly potent in game 5 Wednesday, giving up a miserly 104.6 per Washington's 100 trips with the ball. This showing is especially noteworthy because Joel Embiid, Philly's superstar big man and the 7th best defender in the League this season per ESPN's RPM statistic, did not play.
During the regular season, the average NBA team mustered 112.9 points per 100 possessions, according to CleaningTheGlass.com. However, in aggregate, Philadelphia held opponents to a depressed 108.2--good for third best defense in the League honors. Further, in the almost 3,500 possessions where Joel Embiid was off the court, the Sixers defense essentially held its stopping power, giving up 109.2 points per 100 possessions. As such, there does appear a rational basis to expect the Sixers will limit the Hawk's offensive productivity Sunday...but we are going the other way.
Fundamentally, Trae Young's Hawks' post-season offense is predicated on taking (and making) shots from mid range. However, as good as the Sixers are on defense, Philadelphia has been sub-par defending from four feet out to the free throw line in these playoffs, allowing the Wizards (who also rely heavily on the mid-range game) to connect 43% of the time, compared to an average of about 41%.
Similarly, the Hawks rank in the NBA's bottom quartile stopping their competition's mid-range offense (Atlanta's D certainly looked good versus the Knicks, but we think that was more about the Knicks offense underperforming than the Hawks defense overperforming). This shortcoming plays into one of Philly's core strengths with the ball, as the Sixers too boast one of the League's most potent mid-range games (as well as a generally more competent and balanced offense versus New York's).
But in addition to the idea that these teams defensive gaps' play into each other's offensive strengths, we also note environmental context that supports the expectation of higher than anticipated scoring.
The opening games of the second round of post-season action appear to invigorate offenses of new playoff contenders...
Backing the OVER in games one and two of the second round of post-season action when the road team did not appear in the prior playoffs has been a ridiculously successful strategy, historically...
We theorize that teams new to the post-season are uber-excited after advancing beyond the first round. This pride and enthusiasm, we think, commonly translates into increased confidence and focus on offense, and by extension, a greater willingness to engage in shootouts.
But whatever the reason, this system has delivered a 44% return on investment since 2004-05, without a full year cover rate below 50%. Further, despite the modest 38-game sample size, profitability proved statistically significant.
Happy betting!!
Comments