In an unprecedented move, and to our chagrin, the Golden State Warriors' Stephen Wardell Curry hung 50 on the Sacramento Kings in game 7 action to advance to the second round of the 2022-23 NBA Playoffs. Perhaps counterintuitively, and fortunately for us, this contest finished below the 229.5 total despite this individual offensive explosion. While we expect to continue to fade the betting total in the games 6 and 7 of these playoff proceedings, Tuesday's second round opener at San Francisco's Chase Center appears ripe to exceed the total. Accordingly we are backing the OVER. The graphic below justifies our perspective.
Notwithstanding the relatively slight 40-game sample size, the system described in the image has delivered a statistically significant (and eye-popping) 42% return on investment, at the 95% confidence level, since the 2004-05 NBA post-season, and has not submitted a cover rate below 50% in any year included in the observation period.
We hypothesize that this angle is consistently successful because, early in the second round, despite bypassing their prior opposition, road teams lacking post-season pedigree do not fully embrace the imperative of defense in attempts to advance deep into the post-season.
As of the time of this writing, SportsInsights reports that 65% of O/U bets by volume are down on the UNDER, and the percent of the O/U handle has drifted lower since this line opened, to slightly above 50% at present. The line briefly slipped from its 228 open down to 227.5, but action on the UNDER propped the totoal back up to the opening level in pretty short order. Perhaps flows favoring the UNDER should not come as a surprise given that these teams combined O/U record in first round action is 5-8. Thus, inclined adherents might be best served by waiting until closer to tip-off to jump on the OVER.
Happy betting!!
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