The Sacramento Kings have taken a commanding 2-0 lead over the Golden State Warriors in the opening round of the 2022-23 NBA Playoffs. This situation appears rather ominous for the defending champions, as Land of Basketball has observed only a 7% incidence of teams advancing from this position.
However, history suggests a sweep is unlikely, and that game 3 represents an ideal spot to back the Dubs for the win and cover (Golden State is currently slated as 5.5 point favorites when this series resumes in San Francisco). The graphic below describes an angle that validates this perspective.
This simple system's 69% cover rate has been good for a 34% long-term return on investment and has proved statistically significantly different than the 52.4% cover rate required to breakeven (assuming the standard -110 juice) at the 95% confidence level.
Explaining this angle's consistent success, we theorize that teams that have not recently engaged in the increased intensity that post-season play entails are not mentally prepared to dispatch their opposition straight away, at least versus the number.
So while the Kings do look poised to ultimately eliminate the Warriors, we expect Golden State to resist this effort in game 3 at their Chase Center Thursday. We are betting accordingly.
On personnel, Draymond Green will be unavailable as a result of a one game suspension.
Happy betting!!
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