Backing the Road Favs for the TNF Cover: Bucs -5 -110
Our computer simulation work endorses the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to collect the cover in the fifth installment of the 2020 NFL season's Thursday Night Football. Accordingly, we are betting on a return to normalcy, where favorites cover the first game of the football week.
For twelve of the last 17 completed NFL seasons, backing teams laying chalk outside their division on Thursdays has been a solidly profitable endeavor, good for a 15% return on investment in aggregate.
However, this usually reliable system is 1-2 ATS so far this season, after of 2-4 showing last year.
In spite of the rough going of late though, we expect Tom Brady's Bucs to strike a blow for upended TNF favorites everywhere this week.
(Worth mentioning, though season-to-date Thursday results have veered off the path implied by history, we are 4-0 betting TNF this season, so we were not caught flat-footed by this year's abnormal outcomes. Hopefully we will continue to navigate this season's idiosyncrasies, on Thursdays and beyond.)
Supporting our expectation for the TNF favorite to beat the number in week 5, we have observed that good teams tend to cruise once they get their machines in gear. In the past, a sequence of three consecutive wins has served as an solid indicator that a squad is rolling.
Non-division favorites facing non-playoff caliber competition after rattling off three straight wins have been strong ATS bets, generating an 11% return on investment since 2004.
This approach is 34-25 ATS (58%) when the streaking favorite is the away team.
The system is 3-0 ATS so far this season.
Further, when top teams from different divisions match-up, the meaningful favorite has proven the play, more times than not.
This observation suggests coaching staffs might focus scouting efforts more on division opposition, given the greater proportion of divisional match-ups in the NFL schedule.
As a cautionary note though, this system is only 2-2 so far this year.
Addendum: The Bucs opened as 5.5-6 point favorites at the Bears Thursday, but that figure has been bid down to the present 3.5. While Tampa Bay is supported by better than 80% of ATS bets by volume, this take represents less than 20% of the total haul in dollar terms. Oddsmakers have dropped the line in response to the flood of money on Chicago.
As further broad contextual support for the road cover, we remind our audience of bettors' credulity in games with national focus (which tend to garner greater national attention because potential viewers are more likely to be off work and available). We think this contest marks another instance where the market is leaning the wrong way.
In regular season evening games, favorites that saw the line move meaningfully against them proved solid bets historically, delivering an 18% long-term ROI.
This system is 1-0 ATS so far this year.
Happy betting!!
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