NFL 2020 Week 9: Chicago Bears @ Tennessee Titans

Siding with the Road Dogs Plus the Points: Chicago Bears +7 -120

We estimate the Titans are 3-4 points better than the Bears in week 9, after adjusting home field advantage to reflect the Titans' plan to host 12.5% of capacity at Nissan Stadium Sunday. Given the significant value we perceive with the road dogs, we are happy to wager that Chicago can hang within a touchdown of the Titans (we opted to pay up for the hook to get to the critical 7 handle, however, our work absolutely endorses the listed +6.5).

Additionally, it is worth mentioning that this pick fits with a prominent and profitable tendency in the 2020 NFL season. Road dogs are hitting the cover off the ball, to mix sports metaphors. Teams taking points while traveling are 45-32 ATS this season, for a 58% cover rate. This trend, while highly unusual, is exploitable (road dogs have turned a profit every week since week 2).

Bigger picture, it has proven consistently profitable historically to back the road dog when relatively unfamiliar teams on the skids meet.

In non-division action featuring two teams that have each dropped 2-4 games in a row, the road dog has been good for a 23% return on investment since 2003, including a 3-0 run this season..