NFL 2020 Week 9 TNF: Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers

Getting Down on a 7-Point Teaser for Week 8 TNF: Niners +14 and o41.5 (-140)

Surprisingly, our power ranking framework makes the Packers, with the third best QB in the League by DYAR, only about a field goal better than the Niners, who are without their starting quarterback, after Jimmy Garappolo suffered a high ankle injury in week 8. Accordingly, we are leaning on the home dogs for the cover.

We submit that the difference between Garappolo and understudy, Nick Mullens, is not astronomical. Our framework makes Mullens a couple of points worse than San Francisco's primary passer, but that's all. In fact, Mullens is the best QB so far this season with less than 120 attempts.

Also supporting the the idea that the Niners can beat the number this evening, the Packers boast the 29th worst defense in the League, ranking below average versus the run and against the aerial attack, by DVOA. On the other hand, San Francisco rates in the top-ten overall with the ball, largely on the strength of their 7th ranked ground game. Thus, a key to the home cover Thursday night might be the 49ers offense's ability to exploit Green Bay's defensive shortcomings.

The Packers sport the second-best offense in the NFL, by DVOA. Consistent with what one might intuitively expect when two elite NFL offenses come together, our computer simulation work also favors the over in this evening's action.

But rather than playing the spread and total separately, we are combining the two into a 7-point teaser on the Niners and the OVER (-140), primarily to capture the added cushion versus the spread that an extra touchdown conveys...just in case.

Happy betting!!