UFC Betting Pick: Betting on a Repeat of 2023, Marvin Vettori -125
Marvin "The Italian Dream" Vettori originally faced Roman Dolidze on the UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 card in March 2023. Vettori outstruck Dolidze, which earned a unanimous decision win for the Italian fighter. We are betting that the second matchup between these combatants will produce the same result as that original clash, almost exactly two years ago.
Per UFCStats.com's Tale of the Tape, Vettori is the younger, more active striker, the more accurate striker, the better grappler and the better takedown defender (despite Dolidze's grappling pedigree). The Georgian opposition is the better submission artist, however. Neutralizing this factor though, Vettori is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu brown belt, and has never been submitted (all six of his losses were decided by the judges).
In addition to the fundamental edges Vettori boasts, context also appears to support our play, as there is a well-documented basis for the winner of the first fight to prevail in rematches. For instance, per Dave Meltzer, writing for MMAFighting.com, over the history of the UFC (through early April 2017) 49 championship rematches have taken place. Winners of the first bout are 26-21-2 (55%). Without a belt on the line, this tendency is more pronounced. In 2008, Jason of FightMatrix.com reported that of 2,307 contests featuring fighters that faced each other at least once before, the winner of the last fight prevailed 65% of the time. Similarly, OddsShark.com observed that from UFC 1 through early 2023 revenge has been hard to come by. Winners of first fights are 71-44-3 (62%). According to he same source, prior victors' record is a massively impressive 28-8 (78%) in rematches when slated as the betting favorite. This latter finding proved statistically significantly different than the 56% win probability implied by Vettori's -125 odds.
From a different angle, per the BetMMA.tips database, southpaw favorites with age advantages of more than 4 years are 117-42 (74%) versus conventional stance fighters.
When the younger, favored lefty is a slight to moderate favorite (i.e., sporting odds between -110 and -150) the record improves to 13-3.
Thus, as far as we can tell, the stars appear aligned for Marvin Vettori to hand Roman Dolidze his second defeat in their second meeting. Given the weight of the support for Vettori, this play constitutes our highest conviction UFC betting pick for Fight Night 254 action. We are laying the -125 and siding with Vettori for the win.
Happy betting!!
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